The Akron Zoological Park During the late 1980s, global changes in consumer preferences for radial tires, inflation, and changes in governmental priorities, almost resulted in the permanent closing of the Akron Children’s Zoo. Lagging attendance and a low membership level did not help matters

 

UPES Solved Assignments

UPES Semester 1 Solved Assignments for MBA/BBA

Quantitative Techniques for Management Applications

Assignment 1

Forecasting

The Akron Zoological Park

During the late 1980s, global changes in consumer preferences for radial tires, inflation, and changes in governmental priorities, almost resulted in the permanent closing of the Akron Children’s Zoo. Lagging attendance and a low membership level did not help matters. Faced with uncertain prospects, the city of Akron opted out of the zoo business. In response, the Akron Zoological Park was organized as a corporation to operate the zoo under contract with the city.

Annual Attendance at the Akron Zoological Park

		Admission Fee ($)
Year	Total Persons	Adult	Child	Group
1998	117,874	4.00	2.50	1.50
1997	125,363	3.00	2.00	1.00
1996	126,853	3.00	2.00	1.50
1995	108,363	2.50	1.50	1.00
1994	133,762	2.50	1.50	1.00
1993	95,504	2.00	1.00	.50
1992	63,034	1.50	.75	.50
1991	63,853	1.50	.75	.50
1990	61,417	1.50	.75	.50
1989	53,353	1.50	.75	.50

To be successful, the zoo must maintain its image as a quality place for its visitors to spend their time. Its animal exhibits are clean and neat. The animals, birds, and reptiles look well cared for. As resources become available for construction and continuing operations, the zoo also keeps adding new exhibits and activities. The independent organization’s efforts seem to be working, because attendance increased from 53,353 in 1989 to an all-time record of 133,762 in 1994.

Due to its northern climate, the zoo’s open season lasts from mid-April until mid-October. It reopens for 1 week at Halloween and for the month of December. Zoo attendance depends largely on the weather. For example, attendance was down during the month of December 1995, which established many local records for the coldest temperature and the most snow. Variations in weather also affect crop yields and prices of fresh animal foods, thereby influencing the costs of animal maintenance.

In normal circumstances, the zoo may be able to achieve its target goal and attract an annual attendance equal to 40% of its community. Akron has not grown appreciably during the past decade. But the zoo became known as an innovative community resource, and as indicated in the table, annual paid attendance has doubled. Approximately 35% of all visitors are adults. Children account for one half of the paid attendance. Group admissions remain a constant 15% of attendance.

The zoo does not have an advertising budget. To gain exposure in its market, it depends on public service announcements, the zoo’s public television series, and local press coverage of its activities. Many of these activities are only a few years old and are a strong reason why attendance has increased.

Although the zoo is a nonprofit organization, it must ensure that its income sources equal or exceed operating and physical plant costs. Its continued existence remains totally dependent on its ability to generate revenues while reducing its expenses.

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1. The president of the Akron Zoo has asked you to calculate the expected gate admittance figures and revenues for both 1999 and 2000. Would simple linear-regression analysis be the appropriate forecasting technique?

 

2. Besides admission price, what other factors that influence annual attendance should be considered in the forecast?